Despite the progress made in recent years at national, European, and international levels, the current climate around sustainability feels increasingly tense. Geopolitical instability, the resurgence of aggressive anti-green policies, disinformation campaigns, and economic protectionism are casting shadows over global environmental goals. The recent shift in U.S. leadership, for instance, has felt like a cold shower for those hoping that shared values would continue to guide political and economic decision-making.
In this complex landscape—where part of society defends the principles of the 2030 Agenda while another actively dismantles them—clarity is needed. The ASviS Spring Report 2025, titled “Scenarios for Italy in 2035 and 2050: The False Dilemma Between Competitiveness and Sustainability,” provides just that.
Sustainability Makes Economic Sense
Produced in collaboration with Oxford Economics, the report outlines four potential scenarios for Italy’s economic future, analyzing how ecological transition could impact key sectors. The message is clear: investing in sustainability is economically beneficial.
Decarbonization, circular economy models, and green innovation lead to tangible gains, including:
- greater energy autonomy and lower costs,
- increased productivity,
- financial solidity,
- more inclusive and equitable development.
The idea that sustainability and competitiveness are at odds is outdated. Italian companies that embraced the green and digital transition have seen improved productivity, financial health, and investment capacity.
When Businesses Believe in Sustainability
According to Istat (2021–2022), 38% of Italian companies with three or more employees undertook at least one environmental initiative. In the manufacturing sector, environmental sustainability led to a productivity premium of 5–8%, and circular economy practices saved over €16 billion in production costs.
Financially, “circular companies” also demonstrate stronger debt coverage ratios and healthier investment profiles. Research by The European House – Ambrosetti shows that 92% of family-owned businesses and 89% of non-family companies report concrete benefits from integrating sustainability into their business models.
But to maximize these benefits, Italy must invest in skills, education, and a long-term vision—areas where the country still lags behind.
Four Futures for Italy: 2035 and 2050
Oxford Economics modeled four possible futures:
- Net Zero: A global carbon tax and robust decarbonization policies initially reduce Italy’s GDP by 1% in 2035. But by 2050, productivity gains drive a +3.5% increase over the baseline.
- Net Zero Transformation: With strong innovation and policy investment, GDP would already be 1.1% higher by 2035, and unemployment lower by 0.7 percentage points. By 2050, GDP would be +8.4% above baseline.
- Late Transition: Delaying policies until 2030 would backfire. A harsher carbon tax would create inflationary pressures, and GDP would fall 2.4% by 2035, with unemployment rising to 8%.
- Climate Catastrophe: Increased fossil fuel demand, extreme climate events, and emissions volatility would cause GDP to plummet by 23.8% by 2050, with unemployment reaching 12.3%.
The direction is clear. Delay is no longer an option.
A Call for Transformational Acceleration
Italy’s most recent policy tools—its budget law, revisions to the national recovery plan (PNRR), and fiscal strategies—have largely missed the opportunity to drive sustainable change. As ASviS Scientific Director Enrico Giovannini warns, the country lacks the “step change” required to close the gap with the SDGs.
The solution? A Transformational Acceleration Plan (TAP). The next budget law should include urgent measures to:
- modernize healthcare systems,
- strengthen education for future challenges,
- align economic strategies with the EU’s competitiveness compass,
- upgrade the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC),
- turn cities into sustainable innovation labs,
- protect environmental commons.
Coherence Is a Strategic Asset
The good news is: it’s not too late. Italy has a roadmap—the National Sustainable Development Strategy, adopted in September 2023 during the UN SDG Summit. It simply needs to act on it. As Giovannini reminds us, being coherent with what we’ve already committed to is the first, indispensable step toward a competitive and sustainable future.